Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211104 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30     89.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     46.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.5  13.2  16.2  18.1  21.5  23.3  22.0  23.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 125.1 127.3 127.3 127.3 122.9 116.5 114.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0  21.0   9.0 -25.0   8.0  -9.0   5.0  -5.0 VU  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  78.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        8.6%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       11.7%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.9%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        3.9%        2.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        2.5%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%