Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211105 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     57.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  17.2  21.2  21.5  23.0  21.4  24.3  23.2  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 132.0 132.0 129.6 122.9 118.6 116.5 120.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  -1.0 -16.0 -16.0  -2.0   8.0  13.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  76.0  75.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.8%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        7.4%        3.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        2.5%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%