Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211105 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70     91.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.5  19.9  21.2  21.6  20.8  22.8  23.5  19.9  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   6.0   2.0   4.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 129.6 127.3 125.1 120.7 114.4 116.5 120.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -23.0 -21.0 -25.0  39.0  20.0  40.0  24.0  U VU VU VU  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.3%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.8%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.0%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%