Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211105 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.60     92.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.2  21.8  20.6  20.4  21.2  23.4  22.6  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   4.0   5.0   7.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 129.6 127.3 125.1 116.5 116.5 118.6 125.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0 -11.0  19.0 -22.0  20.0   3.0  19.0  59.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.3%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.5%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.9%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.7%        1.8%