Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211105 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20     92.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  19.7  21.3  22.8  23.8  25.6  20.0  19.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   6.0   7.0   6.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.3 122.9 118.6 114.4 112.4 114.4 118.6 127.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -25.0 -12.0  22.0  31.0  23.0  21.0  31.0  59.0 VU  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.0%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.0%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%