Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.00     94.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     45.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  21.3  22.1  21.0  23.3  22.5  18.3  17.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   7.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   6.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 118.6 114.4 112.4 112.4 116.5 122.9 122.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -14.0  -8.0  11.0  22.0  37.0  30.0  64.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.2%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        4.8%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        3.7%        1.9%