Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211106 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.70     94.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     53.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  21.9  20.4  21.8  24.6  22.4  18.7  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   6.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        121.5 117.4 115.5 115.5 115.5 121.5 127.9 121.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  23.0  40.0  39.0  36.0  57.0  73.0  85.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.0%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        4.3%        2.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons