Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211106 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50     96.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.4  20.5  20.4  22.2  22.9  22.1  23.1  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   6.0   7.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 112.4 110.5 112.4 112.4 120.7 120.7 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  14.0   6.0  12.0  47.0  42.0  87.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  72.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        6.6%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%       12.6%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.1%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        7.2%        3.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons