Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211106 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.40     97.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     91.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.5  19.6  20.8  23.7  20.6  20.6  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   3.0   1.0   5.0   5.0  13.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 110.5 112.4 110.5 114.4 120.7 118.6 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  35.0  21.0  44.0  72.0  69.0  89.0  85.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  67.0  72.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.3%        3.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.0%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       12.4%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        0.8%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        3.6%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        9.1%        5.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons