Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211107 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.30     98.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  23.4  23.4  22.3  23.5  25.6  16.1  16.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   6.0   6.0  18.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5 110.5 112.4 112.4 118.6 120.7 118.6 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  -1.0  31.0  36.0  10.0  45.0  40.0  85.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  69.0  71.0  68.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        7.4%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        5.8%        3.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons