Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211107 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20     99.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  22.1  21.7  25.7  27.4  19.7  20.1  17.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   6.0  18.0  10.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 112.4 114.4 118.6 120.7 116.5 116.5 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  31.0  10.0  39.0  36.0  43.0  57.0  77.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  64.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -6.0  -5.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.0%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.7%        3.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.8%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        5.7%        3.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons