Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211107 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20    100.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  22.7  26.6  28.8  23.6  20.5  19.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   2.0   4.0   4.0  10.0  18.0   5.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 112.4 116.5 120.7 118.6 114.4 116.5 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  15.0  12.0  10.0  23.0  66.0  51.0  45.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.8%        2.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.4%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        5.3%        3.1%