Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211107 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.30    102.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.7  24.0  26.6  27.8  19.1  21.1  20.2  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   4.0   4.0   6.0  17.0  10.0   4.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 116.5 120.7 120.7 114.4 114.4 116.5 114.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  26.0  -3.0  39.0  67.0  45.0  17.0  23.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  68.0  66.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -6.0  -3.0  -3.0   2.0   1.0   3.0   0.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.9%        3.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.1%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        5.1%        3.0%