Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211108 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.80    103.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  25.5  27.4  24.5  20.7  15.6  14.1  14.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   5.0   6.0   8.0  17.0   5.0   6.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.6 112.9 115.1 112.9 106.5 106.5 106.5 100.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  44.0  61.0  59.0  44.0  34.0  -7.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.4%        2.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.0%       13.9%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        6.1%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        6.0%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        6.0%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       19.0%       10.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.7%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        5.1%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        5.1%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        9.4%        5.4%