Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211108 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.40    104.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  28.6  25.7  21.6  17.2  15.8  15.2  13.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   7.0  13.0  10.0   3.0   6.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.3 119.6 117.3 112.9 110.7 112.9 104.4  89.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  47.0  65.0  64.0  22.0  45.0  21.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0  -1.0   4.0   4.0   2.0  -1.0   1.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        7.0%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        2.4%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.4%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        8.2%        4.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.9%        3.7%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        5.7%        3.9%