Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211108 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90    106.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  24.8  19.8  16.9  15.0  14.8  11.2  12.2  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0  10.0  16.0  15.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 129.3 127.0 120.1 111.5 107.4  96.2  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  80.0  70.0  59.0  64.0  21.0  33.0  39.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   3.0   5.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%       16.3%       10.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        7.0%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        6.5%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        6.5%        4.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       19.7%       11.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.9%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%       10.3%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        5.7%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%       12.7%        8.9%