Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211108 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.30    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  18.0  18.0  17.8  14.5  13.8  13.3  17.4  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  16.0  13.0   6.0   2.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 132.0 120.7 114.4 101.2 104.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  60.0  52.0  26.0  58.0  29.0  59.0  40.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  68.0  66.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       11.1%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        4.5%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.0%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.0%        2.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       13.4%        7.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.6%        7.9%        6.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        4.2%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        6.2%       10.1%        8.1%