Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211109 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.4  16.2  12.7  14.4  15.6  17.5  21.3  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  15.0   7.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 132.0 127.3 118.6 110.5  99.4 110.5  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  44.0  39.0  40.0  41.0  35.0  18.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  65.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        8.7%       36.0%       22.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.8%       22.1%       12.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%       22.1%       11.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       20.2%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       45.9%       25.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       27.4%       13.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.0%       20.4%       15.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%       18.0%       10.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%       19.8%       11.9%