Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211109 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  16.2  13.0  15.7  18.4  17.7  21.1  20.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   7.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.3 134.3 129.6 122.9 116.5 104.8 101.2 114.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  66.0  58.0  77.0  57.0  38.0  23.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  67.0  63.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       23.2%       14.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%       11.4%        6.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%       10.6%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       10.6%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%       27.3%       15.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.9%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.1%       10.0%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        8.5%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%       10.9%        7.2%