Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211109 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.00    111.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  13.9  15.7  16.6  14.0  16.7  19.3  20.5  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   4.0   2.0   3.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.0 127.3 120.7 116.5 112.4 101.2 110.5 120.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  48.0  46.0  31.0  14.0  30.0  63.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0  -1.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        9.4%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       12.4%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.2%        3.8%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.1%        3.5%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%        7.9%        6.4%