Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211109 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.7  16.7  18.3  18.0  15.5  20.5  22.6  25.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.3 127.9 123.6 121.5 109.8 106.2 121.5 123.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  21.0  19.0  -4.0  26.0  40.0  85.0  63.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.4%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.4%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        2.0%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        5.6%        4.6%