Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211110 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    113.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.0  16.9  16.2  14.4  19.0  22.4  25.2  25.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   2.0   4.0   8.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.9 123.6 121.5 115.5 104.4 111.6 123.6 123.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   5.0  12.0  37.0  36.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  64.0  65.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -5.0  -1.0  -3.0  -5.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.8%        4.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.2%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       13.0%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        2.0%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        3.6%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%        8.3%        6.6%