Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211110 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    114.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     55.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  16.4  13.2  14.2  19.5  21.8  28.1  28.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   6.0   6.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 119.4 113.5 108.0 108.0 121.5 123.6 123.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0 -16.0  18.0  -2.0  65.0  97.0  71.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  65.0  65.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.7%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.2%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%       11.8%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.3%        2.0%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%        3.5%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        6.6%        4.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons