Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211110 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    116.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  13.7  14.0  15.4  17.1  22.8  27.0  27.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   6.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.4 115.5 108.0 104.4 115.5 123.6 123.6 123.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0   4.0  16.0  25.0  84.0 100.0  55.0  55.0 VU  U  U  U  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        9.5%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.1%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        3.5%        3.5%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        3.1%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        6.4%        5.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons