Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182021 211110 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    117.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6  13.5  14.9  16.3  21.0  28.8  33.7  33.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   4.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.5 106.2 104.4 109.8 121.5 123.6 123.6 123.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  20.0  22.0  83.0 125.0  89.0  43.0  43.0  U  U  U  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  59.0  59.0  58.0  57.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.3%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       13.1%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.6%        2.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        3.6%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        3.6%        3.7%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        5.3%        4.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons