Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012021 210514 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50     72.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.4  35.8  34.3  29.6  31.8  26.1  31.8  36.4  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  73.0  70.0  71.0  87.0  67.0  51.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   140.0 109.0 108.0 133.0  94.0  45.0  -4.0  18.0 VF  F  F VF  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  66.0  66.0  62.0  55.0  52.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.9%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h       15.5%       23.0%       19.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.8%        8.0%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        8.0%        5.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        6.3%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       24.3%       16.8%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%        7.5%        5.4%
 55kt / 48h       17.6%       13.8%       15.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.8%        8.7%        9.7%
 65kt / 72h       31.0%       15.5%       23.2%