Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012021 210515 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60     72.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  33.3  29.2  26.8  23.5  20.4  24.8  27.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   66.0  66.0  71.0  77.0  81.0  55.0  51.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 100.0  81.0  55.0  24.0   7.0  26.0  12.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  63.0  55.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  -5.0   4.0   5.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.3%        8.0%       10.2%
 25kt / 24h       39.3%       47.3%       43.3%
 30kt / 24h       20.5%       32.2%       26.4%
 35kt / 24h       17.8%       32.2%       25.0%
 40kt / 24h        6.3%       25.7%       16.0%
 45kt / 36h       26.0%       45.2%       35.6%
 55kt / 36h       12.0%       22.8%       17.4%
 55kt / 48h       25.4%       28.3%       26.9%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%       18.1%       13.4%
 65kt / 72h       17.3%       23.1%       20.2%