Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012021 210515 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50     73.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  32.1  27.1  23.4  20.3  19.6  28.7  36.3  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   100.0  81.0  55.0  90.0  17.0  17.0  -8.0   1.0  F  N  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  80.0  81.0  76.0  75.0  70.0  70.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0  -4.0  -6.0   6.0   1.0  11.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.1%        6.9%       10.0%
 25kt / 24h       34.0%       40.0%       37.0%
 30kt / 24h       20.9%       25.5%       23.2%
 35kt / 24h       16.0%       25.5%       20.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%       24.0%       16.6%
 45kt / 36h       23.7%       32.9%       28.3%
 55kt / 36h       11.1%       14.5%       12.8%
 55kt / 48h       19.8%       22.3%       21.0%
 70kt / 48h        6.0%       11.1%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%       12.6%        9.9%