Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012021 210515 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     72.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.1  28.3  25.6  22.7  22.7  27.0  28.5  32.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  55.0  20.0  16.0  12.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  92.0  86.0  78.0  47.0  -2.0  -9.0  15.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  66.0  65.0  61.0  53.0  53.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -2.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.5%       15.3%       18.9%
 25kt / 24h       52.1%       59.9%       56.0%
 30kt / 24h       34.5%       52.3%       43.4%
 35kt / 24h       30.4%       52.3%       41.3%
 40kt / 24h       17.6%       46.6%       32.1%
 45kt / 36h       33.1%       47.2%       40.1%
 55kt / 36h       15.7%       26.1%       20.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       26.0%       22.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.2%       11.9%        8.1%
 65kt / 72h        3.5%        8.5%        6.0%