Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012021 210516 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90     72.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  24.9  19.2  17.4  23.5  33.2  35.3  46.5  N  N  N  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0   0.0  -1.0  -7.0   1.0 -25.0 -12.0   9.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  64.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0   2.0  -1.0   2.0  -1.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.7%       18.7%       35.2%
 25kt / 24h       47.7%       44.0%       45.9%
 30kt / 24h       47.7%       44.0%       45.9%
 35kt / 24h       47.7%       44.0%       45.9%
 40kt / 24h       19.4%       37.2%       28.3%
 45kt / 36h       32.8%       24.0%       28.4%
 55kt / 36h        6.1%       13.2%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        4.7%        2.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%