Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012021 210516 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     72.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  21.1  18.0  18.5  25.2  34.1  32.2  32.0  N  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  55.0  56.0  51.0   6.4   5.1   3.8   2.5  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  17.0  21.0  31.0  -1.0   0.0   6.0  -3.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  55.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -3.0  -1.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   5.0  -1.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       64.7%       30.0%       47.4%
 25kt / 24h       56.3%       48.9%       52.6%
 30kt / 24h       56.3%       48.0%       52.2%
 35kt / 24h       56.3%       48.0%       52.2%
 40kt / 24h       24.7%       39.3%       32.0%
 45kt / 36h       59.9%       29.4%       44.7%
 55kt / 36h       14.3%       18.5%       16.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.4%        3.8%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%