Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012021 210517 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.80     71.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   110.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   110.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  26.4  36.8  33.3  38.0  42.1  51.2  55.5  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0  -7.0  -9.0  15.0  16.0  12.0  39.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  59.0  57.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  43.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   9.0   1.0   0.0   9.0   9.0  14.0 -12.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        2.3%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        2.7%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        1.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        1.3%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h       13.0%        0.8%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%