Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012021 210518 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40     71.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.6  30.3  28.6  38.2  47.9  49.0  56.7  54.7  U  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.09999.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   7.0  49.0  43.0  33.0  14.0  24.0  18.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  64.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0  14.0   6.0   7.0   1.0   9.0  14.0  -3.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.6%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        0.2%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%