Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022021 210524 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80     90.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    164.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.6  40.8  47.5  42.4  34.7  35.8  32.0  31.7  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3  94.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  52.0  40.0  31.0  13.0   8.0  -3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  75.0  77.0  75.0  72.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  24.0  37.0  21.0   7.0  10.0   9.0   4.0 VU VU VU VU  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%