Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022021 210524 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30     89.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  29.4  33.4  30.0  27.2  29.1  26.2  28.5  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0  82.0  60.0  44.0  34.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  72.2  40.8  32.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  76.0  89.0  37.0 -12.0  15.0   6.0  14.0  N  N  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  76.0  76.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        3.6%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h       12.5%       20.9%       16.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%        7.6%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%        7.6%        5.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        6.7%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.4%       18.0%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%        5.6%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        3.6%        3.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%        2.8%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.4%        0.9%