Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022021 210525 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.90     88.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     87.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.2  29.9  30.5  30.3  30.4  32.2  31.1  26.9  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0  88.6  49.4  31.7  15.4   6.2  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0   0.0 -17.0 -30.0   0.0   4.0  -3.0  23.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  79.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0  -4.0 -10.0   2.0   0.0   9.0   7.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.9%        5.6%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       12.3%       17.0%       14.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.3%       11.7%       12.0%
 35kt / 24h       12.3%       11.7%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        8.6%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        5.2%        2.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%