Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022021 210526 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10     87.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     69.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  21.2  21.5  21.0  21.6  19.5  24.3  17.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.6  66.2  73.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -45.0 -38.0 -24.0 -38.0   0.0  22.0  15.0   0.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  73.0  69.0  65.0  59.0  50.0  53.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   9.0  -1.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        3.5%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       10.7%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.1%        6.7%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.1%        6.7%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        5.0%        2.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%        6.5%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        2.3%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        4.5%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%