Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032021 210924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     90.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  18.7  22.4  22.4  21.7  19.9  28.1  28.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  36.0  32.0  27.0  25.0  24.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 111.5  53.7  53.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  34.0  29.0   7.0  23.0  19.0  28.0  28.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  82.0  81.0  82.0  83.0  82.0  83.0  83.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0 -10.0  -5.0  -5.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.1%        7.9%        7.0%
 25kt / 24h       15.1%       39.4%       27.3%
 30kt / 24h        9.8%       23.0%       16.4%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%       23.0%       15.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       23.0%       12.5%
 45kt / 36h       11.9%       46.7%       29.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.4%       13.2%
 55kt / 48h       11.9%       21.3%       16.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%       18.5%       10.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        8.1%        4.1%