Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032021 210924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     90.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  22.7  22.3  25.7  24.1  27.5  30.5  33.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  50.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  47.0  31.7  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 130.0 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  29.0   7.0  41.0  42.0  28.0  16.0  28.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -5.0  -3.0  -3.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.5%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       18.8%       11.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        8.8%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        7.8%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        7.8%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       19.8%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.1%        3.5%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%       12.1%       10.1%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        6.0%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.8%       11.5%        8.2%