Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032021 210925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     89.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     85.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.8  25.3  29.4  26.2  29.6  33.1  33.3  41.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  25.0  25.0  30.0  50.0  40.7  32.0  23.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 125.0 124.3 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  25.0  46.0  48.0   6.0  26.0  27.0  17.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  78.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -6.0   0.0   6.0   1.0   4.0  -2.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        6.6%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       11.5%       32.9%       22.2%
 30kt / 24h        5.7%       20.0%       12.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.2%       20.0%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       18.4%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       30.4%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.6%        6.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%       12.4%        9.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        6.1%        3.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        7.0%        3.5%