Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032021 210925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.5  20.5  20.6  20.0  20.6  15.8  15.6  12.7  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  53.0  51.0  49.0  36.7  24.4  12.1  28.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 104.4 125.0 102.4 119.6 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  13.0   8.0   7.0  13.0  30.0  33.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  78.0  76.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0  -9.0  -7.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.6%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        6.7%       19.8%       13.3%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%        9.7%        7.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.7%        9.1%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        9.1%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.8%       19.1%       12.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.3%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%        9.1%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        5.9%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%       16.6%       10.7%