Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO032021 210926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50     86.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  30.9  28.5  31.3  31.5  34.0  25.5  27.3  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  28.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0  69.4  47.8  66.7  75.0  51.7  62.9  82.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  19.0   8.0  21.0  40.0  -7.0  11.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  76.0  75.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   1.0   1.0  -4.0  -7.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons