Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042021 211111 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.10     80.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  27.3  28.0  30.3  22.9  27.6  37.2  39.7  U  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  20.0  22.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.1  46.2  40.2  39.0  39.6 104.8 135.0 135.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  41.0  40.0  41.0  47.0  44.0  22.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  77.0  79.0  72.0  64.0  67.0  68.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   3.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons