Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052021 211203 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70     85.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.8  23.8  18.7  18.9  26.1  29.6  37.5  46.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  42.0  38.0  34.0  33.0  33.0  35.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1  99.8  94.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   179.0 147.0  89.0  80.0  26.0  40.0  20.0  -7.0 VF VF  F  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  62.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  46.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0  -4.0  -6.0   4.0   3.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.5%        3.4%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       27.2%       42.8%       35.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       22.5%       16.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.6%       22.5%       13.1%
 40kt / 24h        2.8%       21.9%       12.4%
 45kt / 36h       14.2%       42.6%       28.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.7%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.1%       19.0%       17.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.8%       12.4%       10.1%
 65kt / 72h       11.6%        7.9%        9.7%