Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052021 211204 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     85.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  22.1  22.8  22.4  22.1  34.8  51.8  56.3  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  27.0  26.0  25.0  24.0  25.0  16.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 113.6  99.8  96.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  49.0  23.0  18.0  30.0  18.0  -8.0 -38.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  52.0  50.0  45.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   6.0   5.0   6.0   9.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.6%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       14.4%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        5.8%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        5.5%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        5.5%        3.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%       14.3%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        5.3%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.0%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.0%        0.7%