Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO052021 211205 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00     85.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.1  33.8  39.3  51.6  61.1  75.3  79.3  83.2  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  15.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4  91.1  79.4  72.9  61.7  55.0  61.7  59.7  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  31.0   0.0 -16.0 -35.0 -34.0 -44.0  -7.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  51.0  53.0  52.0  56.0  46.0  35.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0   4.0   7.0   3.0  -5.0  -3.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons