Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201115 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.20     73.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     79.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.4  40.5  43.2  41.6  35.3  33.1  37.5  42.9  U  U VU VU  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.7  78.5  73.0  67.7  59.6  52.2  49.4  49.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   172.0 176.0 119.0  93.0  45.0   8.0  18.0  -1.0 VF VF  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  76.0  73.0  66.0  60.0  48.0  36.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -7.0   0.0 -11.0  -8.0 -15.0 -13.0 -18.0  N  F  N  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        2.1%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.1%        5.4%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        2.4%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.4%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons