Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201115 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -13.60     73.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     92.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  34.3  34.7  34.8  30.7  27.5  35.4  32.1  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  14.0   8.0   4.0   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  76.6  71.2  66.0  59.6  53.6  48.0  42.9  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   179.0 126.0  92.0  55.0  -3.0   4.0   9.0   0.0 VF  F  F  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  67.0  62.0  61.0  55.0  52.0  44.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -17.0 -22.0 -27.0 -21.0 -17.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.6%        3.4%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.9%        8.7%        7.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        4.3%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        4.3%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%        2.6%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        4.0%        2.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons