Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201116 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -15.60     72.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     87.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.4  36.1  34.6  37.2  36.9  35.9  36.2  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.3  56.1  53.0  50.0  43.0  37.9  34.3  37.9  U  U  U  U  U  U VU  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   139.0  89.0  52.0  18.0 -18.0  -7.0   5.0   2.0 VF  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  48.0  42.0  35.0  31.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -25.0 -16.0 -13.0 -15.0 -22.0 -38.0 -29.0 -10.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.7%        0.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons