Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012021 201116 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -16.30     72.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.2  34.0  28.6  28.8  27.2  21.1  24.0  25.6  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         51.5  47.2  45.8  45.8  48.6  50.0  48.6  47.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  10.0  15.0  19.0  23.0  -5.0  17.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  60.0  58.0  50.0  43.0  40.0  35.0  20.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -15.0  -9.0 -11.0 -10.0  -4.0  -4.0  -5.0 VF VF  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons